Speaking to a few people about property prices recently (including agents, developers, owners) and there is a general concensus that prices will come down in the next 12 months mainly because of the amount of new houses that are going to be built creating a large amount of supply. Older properties especially are expected to drop the most especially as they are harder to get a mortgage for as banks value them much lower than their asking price.

Would be good to see a decent correction in the market.

oh ... i hear an "ECHO" ! people were saying that last yr and before that and ... ???

True but there wasnt over 100 new flats about to come on the market so it could be different. The agents I spoke to say any flat that is priced over $3.5 has not been sold so perhaps the limit people are willing to pay has been reached.

100 new flats on Lamma ... WHERE ??? ok, maybe not but ... what you get here for 700sq ft would be 550sq ft in Kennedy Town/Sheung Wan, you would get a shoe-box in Causeway Bay, but Park Island is cheap i hear and they have a Park'n'Shop that delivers ! yes, there may be a correction but it's not going to be as "big" as people are hoping/praying for ... besides, property is always an investment "LONG TERM". i would rather own that "pay off" someone else's mortgage - a few less beers/holidays ??? i believe there are a number of expats here who now realise they have "missed the boat" about purchasing a property here on Lamma - IMHO !

Where? In the brand-new, just-founded village of Tai Wan Nam, just off Power Station beach, in-between the 2 Cable Roads where they destroyed the forest a few years ago. Up to 50 new Village House, according to our largest property agents. At least four houses have been completed already and command top dollar rents, but not quite the current $21K top rents advertised for at least 2 rooftop flats.

But it'll take a very long time for these 100+ flats as the individual land owners will need to wait around 7+ years for the Govt. permissions and it'll be likely be another piecemeal, unplanned village, built house by house over the next decade or two. The first batch of 3 houses by the same developer took several years.

We looked at Park Island and all over South Lamma, before deciding to move to Pak Kok. We never even talked to any property agent while looking in July, as not a single place advertised in YSW was below $10K, except Tai Peng Old Village.

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Our recommendation #1 when looking for a place on Lamma during these all-time highest rents:

Do not use any property agent, preferably, but ask friends and friends of friends to find a place, only directly from the owner, via your personal connections, websites (AsiaXpat, etc.) and social media like Facebook and this forum:
No half-rent commission, much better prices and no rip-offs. In this closed, never publicised property market, there are several reasons why no Lamma agent lists any property online anywhere and none of them has ever placed a paid ad on this website (except a handful of below-$1-million flats many years ago).

The agents will easily attract enough well-off "townies" strolling by their shop windows while visiting Lamma on a weekend, walking in and often paying the asking price, even considering themselves lucky as it's still less than much of HK Island or DbAY. When they soon find out that they've massively overpaid it's too late as they're stuck in a 2-year fixed contract.
Plus all the many "challenges" of living on Lamma, the "reasons to avoid Lamma" and my own WARNINGS before moving to Lamma.

Park Island:
The lowest rents are similar to Lamma nowadays, even a few places below $10K, but you get 4 clubhouses, indoor/outdoor swimming pools, loads of restaurants and shops and a fine ferry service every 30 minutes...
We had our eye on a beautiful, almost new place for $12K, waiting to look at places below $10K.

But we're still in love with Lamma, but prefer a much quieter area where you rarely ever see visitors and the relentless, on-going destruction of the formerly pleasant and green living environment of YSW hasn't taken hold (yet)...

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so it's going to be year's before the majority of these new 50 village houses / 100 apartments get built let alone get to the "rental market". the 4 that have been built ??? well, sounds like they are well above the average rent IF what you are quoting IS correct.

YES, lots of people get housing allowances (i.e. civil servants) and the "townies" will continue to come out and look at the properties available and subsequently move here (buy or rent), because a 25 minute ferry commute is no "big deal" if you work in central ! Rents have "risen" in mid-levels/sheung wan etc in the last few years too - it's not just a "Lamma" thing ! Understandably, the majority of "new" Lamma residents go through an agent in the village, and yes the rents are (probably) slightly higher, but now the "direct" landlords are wising up ... wouldn't you too ? you invested, you want the best return on that investment possible !!!

don't forget your Mark 6 tickets !!!

@grannyt,

It may be years before these supposed 100 new builds see the light of day, what cannot be denied though is that US interest rates are set to rise and this means local interest rates will rise due to the Dollar Peg.
Already, Asia is witnessing a pullback on US dollars flowing into the region and China's economic miracle is coming to an end - combined this means less cash pouring into HK for Alpha returns - there's also the little question of approx. 50,000 unoccupied flats in Hong Kong, many purchased with the intention to flip, yet prices per foot have been dropping for the past three months according to the Governments own figures - and not those supplied by the nutters known as property agents.

With regards Lamma Island itself, the majority of apartments blocs on the Island were built prior to the year 2000, many are already beginning to show there age with regards the original shoddy building standards deployed here - look at the mains electrical wiring, water pipes and rusting of the bar used in the concrete construction - none of this augers well for those who have paid highly inflated prices over the past 30 months - the repair bills are large and our humidity levels just make matters all the more worse.

This is the second property bubble I've witnessed in Hong Kong, the last one coinciding with the Handover - shame of the matter is, wages for most have not kept up with HK inflation, hence, it seems nuts for Landlords to ask HK$16-20,000 for flats on this Island, for what effectively is at best 630 square feet of usable space, particularly when most of these units have no actual views, and that's before we look at transport costs per month and lack of decent broadband for those who work from home.

Now, here's the ruse, for those who have purchased since 2010 and paid in excess of HK$2.5-3million, a rise in interest rates is going to hurt, and that means pushing flat rentals higher - which will flatten demand, or basically losing any interest on invested capital, and that's before we look at repairs again as the stock gets older and more dilapidated, as many have not bothered to undertake necessary repairs after paying high purchase price.

The story may be different for flats built after about 2006, but for those built prior to 2000, many are in for a rude shock.

Also, it really is dog shite village here, and that's before one encounters creepy crawlies, flooding and a good Typhoon season, which we have avoided for three years - add it all up, and huge investments are not a great idea on this Island - DB and Park Island, yes, but this place won't be worth living in once they start ripping up the paths again and making life miserable for everyone.

me, if the landlord has failed to sell the flat for the HK$3million he expects, I may stay another year or two, but Park Island at 10K a month now sounds tempting and its ferry service is a damn sight more safer than ours!!!

if you are so concerned about safety on our ferries ... why are still using them ???

anyway, perhaps we are lucky, we have no structural problems, no creepy crawlies/cockroaches, flooding issues are very low, and our neighbours keep their dogs under control (generally). when you purchase a property, here or UK or USA, repair and maintenance should be factored into your costs. subsequently, we maintain our property to our best ability - we have had no complaints.

as for the "world's finances" ... i doubt that interest rates are going to begin to increase within the next 6 months. 12 months maybe ... in the meantime, it's your "choice" where you live. as you mention above any increase in rates (if you have a home-loan/mortgage) will "hurt" when they have been so low for soooo long. it's a process that's been going on for decades ... Good Times and Bad Times.

after 2 months and one half of no luck finding an apartment in Lamma, it looks like we will need to pay an agency anyway... no more time to be looking around, we need to move on the 5th...

2.5 months of not finding anything suitable? We started asking around only in July, spread the word and found that there are lots of places available. But most flats outside the YSW area are not even listed with agencies as they are far less popular with "townies", the bread and butter of our property agencies. These local landlords of outside-YSW flats prefer to find people who are friends of friends or by word of mouth and you might need a Cantonese speaker for negotiations.

We found ours within a few weeks via Facebook. Both the current tenant and our future downstairs neighbours recommended us personally to their great indigenous landlady. We hit it off in person and she promised the flat to us right away, w/o even seriously considering or interviewing other potential tenants (we think), raising the rent only a small amount.

How flexible are you? How much less convenience than in YSW are you willing to accept as a trade-off for lower rent? No shops, bars or restaurants at all nearby? A ferry only every 1.5-3 hours, or a really long walk (or a much shorter bike ride) to the ferry pier?
Once you start looking outside the Greater Yung Shue Wan area, there are quite a few decent and even a few great places available at down to half the rent of something similar in YSW.
Top of Tai Peng, all over South Lamma, like Lo So Hing and Mo Tat Wan, all with decent ferry services. If you move to more remote places, like Luk Chau or Tung O Wan, you might find an entire house for below $10K.

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Lamma-Gung,

If you have children going to the local school, living outside of greater YSW is a bit of a hindrance, I should know as lived in Pak Kok for 5 years before moving to this side of the Island prior to SARS outbreak - had no children then, but now have offspring and don't commute to work to often if it can be helped.

Our Landlord of 6 years, like your old LandLord is trying to sell a flat that has had no maintenance since we moved in, and then it was only covering up damage from the old tenants - people who thought the Island life was great, until actually living here after moving from Central, they lasted 2 months and moved out back to HK-side.

I see better properties advertised on Sea Ranch on Lantau Island than here, you can get 600ft for HK$5,000 inclusive - and that's with an actual bathroom and Western Kitchen - shame about Ferry Service, but a few Lammarites could liven the place up.

However, speculative costs of old housing stock is madness - how can a shithole of a flat nearly 20 years old be worth HK$3 million, of which you'd need to find HK$600,000 as a deposit before a bank would even consider a mortgage - it would take another HK$300,000 just to renovate - or, are we to pay excessive rents on someone else's mortgage costing a minimum of HK$8,000 per month - present mortgage repayments being well under HK$4,000 a month - so landlord already making 100% over and beyond present mortgage for a flat he's spent zilch on since purchasing in 2002.

10-12K for a brand new flat with Western kitchen and bathroom I can except, but no way in hell is the flat I'm in worth more than 8K per month, when is just a basic village flat with no furniture, full of creepy crawlies, mosquitoes and prone to flooding - of course the agents don't mention this, neither do the three owners around my area.

Still, as you say, if can rent something decent on Park Island for 8-10K, that's now an option - the fools from HK-side can learn its not that sweet living here, and with prices now comparable to many places in Kowloon and Hong Kong Island, its a bloody joke!!!!

@ Mavisashman ...

guessing you are on the ground floor then ??? yep, all the creepy/crawlies ... we were concerned when we moved from HK island about the cockroaches, but we don't see many at all ... at our old apartment we had to put our rubbish bags down a "schute" which probably wasn't cleaned as often as it should've been, and here you take your rubbish to the bins ! having said that, i wouldn't want to live next to the bins ...

but be fair your land-lord can't be held responsible for mosquitoe's - they're everywhere !!! and ... when you sign up .. you know if it's furnished/unfurnished or comes with/without washing machine. he or she will be obligated to say what appliances are in the property for insurance purposes ... if you rent unfurnished and you have a break-in don't expect a pay-out - you need your own "contents insurance".

ok, and now i'm getting off the original topic - Goodnight !

Have a guess how much insurance is, thats if you can get it, having had claims on the property previously - not cheap I can assure you.

Further, I and many other of the Western tenants were never warned about flooding by the owners, or property agents - we also have bins left and right of the apartment, it was built in 1994 and has had zero work done on it - owners trying to sell at top of the market for three million, they have a HK$700,000 mortgage and paid a deposit of approx. HK$200,000 when purchased the flat in late 2002 - this is Lamma, not bloody Central London and flats will need ripping down within 20 years due to appalling construction, all hidden via tiles - also, needs a new floor as a result of a mains leek - bet the new owners will not be told that - the bank spent 5 mins here - no real checks - if I'm going to spend £200,000 plus, better to do so in the UK and get a three bedroom semi detached - as for not buying - a bit daft given my wife owns a home overseas and I inherit the UK-property once the folks die - so renting was a good option until 2010 as have no debt whatsoever, but rents of 12K are crass for the condition of much of the stock in Greater YSW area, never mind the 16K being asked on this board now - utter madness!!!!

Park Island this, Park Island that... Are you and Mavis agents trying to advertise something ?
Move to Park Island then, and stop criticizing everyone and everything on Lamma.

Dear Lamma-Gung, please do not take it badly but your comment that was published in the scmp.com saying: "People who cannot afford Hong Kong Island are driven out, so they're coming in here. They're used to even higher rents - HK$30,000 or HK$40,000 in Mid-Levels - so they think HK$20,000 is such a good deal. The property agents are all hooray, hooray! when local tenants have only been paying HK$10,000 to HK$15,000." was not beneficial and makes the owners and agencies dream about prices. I think that who is willing to pay from 16-20k in Lamma is looking for a house but not a flat.

Mavis may have a point, and it was Lamma-Gung who has been discussing Park Island, not myself or Mavis.

However, Mavis and Lamma-Gung do have a point about Park Island and many others places in Hong Kong.

Lets take this example, walking my daughter to North Lamma School this morning on our 400 meter journey we encounter seven newly laid piles of 'dog shite', four of which were directly on the pathway to the School itself - these were deposited within 18 hrs of collecting my daughter from School yesterday.

I wonder how many piles of shit our children will have to avoid in Park Island - I cannot answer this, but can after this weekend when I visit the place to check-out apartments and costs - non-agency of course, I shall of course report back. Further, in future I'll carry a decent camera with me to photograph all new deposits of dog shit on walkways our children must use.

Perhaps you like the rustic lifestyle with dog shit everywhere, I certainly do not, particularly given its a human health hazard - but it does indicate how loved our Island is.

I won't bother discussing flat rental increases of more than 50% this year, far higher than anywhere else in Hong Kong. But hey, our property agents, news papers and property magazines all have a stake in increasing HK's already hugely over inflated housing costs - none of them highlight the perils of flooding, dog shit and other daily hinderances we put up with - all fine if it were cheap to live here, but if they want HK Island prices, perhaps they maintain the housing stock and the environment. And that means no bullshite and certainly no dog shite. Indeed, I've never encountered any dog shit walking from Central Piers to my office in Sheung Wan - only on Lamma Island eh!!!!!!!!!!

Oddly enough, this seems to be the big subject now...even from the same persons who would have slap you in the face a few months ago for talking bad about these adorable creatures... Books, photos, campaigns, blablabla... dogs were gods on Lamma. I'm glad someone finally realizes they are a nuisance. Shall we call it square then ?

@Lamma-Gung,

I appreciate what you have to say about rentals in Yung Shue Wan and its surrounding environs and prospect of cooling off in the next year or two. However, I fear its a message Landlords seem to be missing, although antidotal, i've just been informed by my next door neighbour that her flat rent has been increased by some 60% this coming November - she; like many others are now looking for alternatives to stratospheric rental increases, obviously without the owners even doing any basic maintenance, never mind bringing it up to scratch to Western standards with a decent kitchen and bathroom - I too will be forced to look for alternative accommodation soon, and am thinking of leaving the Island altogether given cost comparisons with other areas suggests we are now way too expensive for such basic amenities on offer - and I'm not talking about shopping.

I'd appreciate if you could give some further details on Park Island and other areas you yourself looked at following your own expulsion from Yung Shue Wan - what was a family friendly Island is changing too much for me, and I'm damned if I'm giving some 35% of my salary to a landlord to payoff a stupid overvalued mortgage, or their own personal greed.

May I remind many new comers that the Landlords could not get enough of us old-timers during the SARS crisis and its aftermath - many a well-heeled Professional left here in a hurry, leaving many a flat empty, but many of us remained to support the local community and environment. Obviously, this is all forgotten as cash trumps loyalty.

I shall be looking at several areas over the coming months, but I'm restricted to being close to a Hong Kong designated English special needs school - unlike others, my child attends local school and is part of a community, just a shame our community cannot stand-up to the price gougers who are destroying what made this place special, and that mean't non-excessive rents that allowed parents to spend lots of time with their children, instead of working long hours to pay someone else's mortgage or give a alpha return on a speculative investment - the rich people can keep it, its theirs, and once the schools go and health clinic goes, perhaps then they'll understand what they have all contributed to destroy.

Well done Mavis, your words made sense to me - Lamma-Gung, please don't highlight the charms of the Island, time to tell the truth, particularly about the dog shit that surrounds us all - obviously dogs being more important than kids!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Please take note:

At Park Island, you will have air-plane fly over all the time and busy highway next to you.

Really? Look at the YSW property agency windows!
I looked at ALL of them in June/July before we moved. There wasn't ANY 700sqft flat available for less than $10K, except up in Tai Peng Old Village. That's when we abandoned our flat search in the Greater YSW Area and looked at the rest of Lamma, relying on local word of mouth exclusively, never talking to a property agent.

For example, eat in the village restaurant and ask the staff and customers for flats in the area and you'll be surprised at the good deals still available, all outside the agents' grasp and neither you nor the landlord needs to pay commission.

Some asking prices are even higher than the $10-15K I was quoted on. The advertised price range is really between $10-15K right now, but some landlords have been dreaming of even higher rents, up to $21K. But these places stay in the windows for many months as it's very hard to find somebody willing to overpay by that much.
For example, an entire village house had been advertised for $52K/month earlier this year. No takers for many months, landlord waiting patiently till he found somebody. It's occupied now, no idea how much they've signed up for in the end.

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